I don't pretend to know the math involved here.
leads to theories, and then maths (such as in physics) finds the explanations, and so we have science. But apart from mega genius's like Einstein, it does usually begin with experiences.
Actually, aside from the CE moving aft, and CLR moving forward, there is a much
bigger effect created by the craft heeling, and
the mast also bending to leeward - a turning moment. Kayaking Bob posted a great pic of an Island ahead of him in strong winds, and you could easily see how far the CE had shifted to leeward.
This easily overpowers the drag effect of the leeward ama... imagine a twin engine aircraft, when only one engine has power (in our case, to leeward) - a very
strong turning force.
Using your super models as ballast
, you decrease the heeling angle, and thus also this turning force, so less weather helm. Just as Mitch has observed. So in strong winds, to keep weather helm to acceptable limits and maintain control whilst carrying a lot of sail, keep loading up the weather tramp with models.
Of course, if the wind dies down, or you turn downwind, you'll need to throw them overboard!